Rui Teixeira: “Start with this: when Democrats persuade a voter to change sides, which is two votes for Democrats (one less for Republicans, another for Democrats). A voting net.
“It simply came to our notice then. In general, Democrats consider increasing the base voter base in terms of increasing the number of voters from different pro-Democratic demographic groups-young voters, black voters, Hispanic voters, college-educated whites, whatever. But not all voters in this group are Democrats, so collecting more voters from a particular group could result in less than one vote per additional voter. For example, looking at the current congressional ballot preference, Democrats can get only one-third of the vote for every additional Hispanic or young voter, six-tenths of the vote for each additional black voter, and only one-sixth for each additional college-educated white voter. “
“The math looks even more unfavorable when the following are considered: Democrats assume that non-voters in a given population are politically identical to voters in the same group … they don’t vote. But a mountain of political science evidence shows that this is not the case.”
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